Pay attention to the change of market confidence and scientifically understand the investor confidence index
Release time：
2022-09-15
Source：
In order to understand the psychological and expected changes of securities investors in the current economic and market environment, insurance fund companies have organized investor confidence surveys and compiled investor confidence indexes on a monthly basis since April 2008. The survey subjects were randomly selected from national investors, including individual and general institutional investors, using a multi-stage stratified PPS sampling method. The investor confidence index is fitted by eight sub indexes, which scientifically reflect the changes in investor confidence from three dimensions of domestic economic fundamentals and economic policies, overseas market environment and internal factors of the stock market. The investor confidence index is released on a monthly basis, and has gradually become an important window for all sectors of society to understand investor confidence.
The investor confidence index and various sub indexes are between 0-100, and 50 is the neutral value. When the index is greater than 50, it indicates that overall investor confidence tends to be optimistic; When the index is less than 50, it indicates that the overall trend is pessimistic. Through long-term follow-up research, it is found that investor confidence index better reflects the psychological changes of investors in the direction of market operation, range of change and valuation level, enriches the index system of the securities market, provides an analysis perspective of market psychology for investors on the basis of traditional fundamental and technical analysis, and provides traceable longitudinal comparative observation indicators for the behavior analysis of capital market participants.
However, as is well known, the rise and fall of the stock market have their own operating rules. The operation of China's capital market has its own characteristics, and market development still faces many pressures and challenges. However, stock prices are influenced by a series of factors such as fundamentals, funding, policy guidance, institutional changes, and investor sentiment, and have significant uncertainty. The investor confidence index reflects investors'expectations for the operation of the stock market in the future for a period of time, is a"thermometer"to measure investors'confidence, rather than an"indicator"of the overall market trend, and will show different degrees of deferred effect in different volatility stages of the stock market. While paying attention to the changes in market confidence, investors should look at and interpret the rise and fall of investor confidence index scientifically and comprehensively, and make comprehensive analysis based on the actual situation of the market.
Case tip:The investor confidence index built by insurance fund companies is a quantitative index that can reflect the changes of most investors'confidence in the market after factor analysis of the complex psychological phenomenon of investor confidence, and then quantifying each factor. However, the operation of the stock market has its own laws and faces many uncertainties. Investors should scientifically understand the investor confidence index based on the actual situation of the market.
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